Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
